Category: The Roylin Report

Roylin Downs- Right now, with ever-changing forecasts about real estate, many people want to know what’s really going on with the housing market. These days I’m getting a lot of questions about home prices, interest rates, and whether the market will be more or less opportune this spring.
For more than twenty years and through multiple market cycles, I’ve been actively involved in Southern California real estate. Through those ups and downs, I’ve learned to separate correlation from cause and one-off blip from pattern. This has helped me make sense of today’s market.
Let’s run through the major forces that have shaped our market up to this point and where they leave us today. Along the way, I’ll give you my take on what’s ahead.

The Boom and Inflation
After the initial shock of the pandemic, in 2020 and 2021 demand for homes far exceeded supply. Interest rates were low, remote work compelled people to move, and investors raced to the residential market. Resale listings increased but couldn’t keep up, and new home construction stalled. The market expanded while prices soared; this was the “pandemic boom.”
Meanwhile, at the beginning of the pandemic our money supply increased 27%, but families and businesses were saving at a high rate. By 2022, spending picked up and the new money finally started circulating. Inflation hit a high of 8%, and the Fed responded with aggressive action. It worked; by January 2024, the 12-month inflation rate was down to just 3.1%.
Now, most pandemic-related moves have already occurred, investors have pulled back, and interest rates have risen, so there’s no reason to expect another sensational rally anytime soon. Barring a broader economic upset, lower-than-2023 rates should bolster the market in 2024, but the growth should be slow and steady.

Interest Rates
This past October, the average 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.75%, and just a few months later it was down to about 6.6%. Potential buyers and sellers hoped this steep trajectory would continue, but it didn’t.
Mortgage rates fell sharply in late 2023 because the third-quarter inflation rate beat expectations, and again in early 2024 after the Fed announced a stop to the rate hikes. This caused banks to reduce mortgages, despite no actual rate adjustment by the Fed, because they set long-term rates based on short-term rate expectations. Now that they’ve already brought those potential reductions forward, what we’re seeing now are supply-and-demand driven fluctuations.
That’s why in February the average 30-year mortgage went up a few basis points. This caused some to worry that rates might to shoot back up. But I don’t think they will. According to a February prediction from mortgage research firm HSH, in 2024 the average 30-year mortgage should fall between 6.35% and 6.89%, compared to the current average of 6.90% (per Freddie Mac).

Market Activity
When the boom ended in late 2022, there was no “bust.” Instead, just like during the Savings and Loan Crisis of the 1980s, buyers and sellers both retreated. Transactions fell as much as 50%, with Ventura getting hit particularly hard. But our market proved resilient.
Currently, Ventura home sales are down 14% year-over-year, with 37 homes sold in January compared to 43 last January. In hard numbers, this marks a new 5-year low for the city, but our dataset is too small to conclude we’re trending downhill. Panning out to Ventura County, home sales are up 4.2% year-over-year (324 sales compared to 311 last January).
In Ventura County, and especially in Ventura, we saw a big uptick in listings over the last few months. This is due largely to rates dropping more than a point; sellers who had been holding off since 2022 finally decided to make a move. This drove inventory up quickly, and we didn’t see a commensurate number of new buyers enter the market.
However, demand had been outpacing supply since the fall, and our housing shortage remains severe. But the upshot in listings slowed the market down, as new sellers and existing buyers worked to find alignment. We didn’t see the market tip to favor buyers, but we did see longer selling cycles locally and a month-to-month dip in prices countywide (despite a substantial year-over-year gain).
That said, there’s a lot of “pent-up demand” across the country right now. With rates better than they were last year, many of these buyers are expected to enter the market this spring; here locally, I expect a strong turnout. I also expect more sellers to hit the market, and for transactions to increase overall. Annually, the National Association of REALTORS® is predicting 13.5% year-over-year increase in transaction volume in 2024.

Home Prices
In January 2024, the median home sale price in Ventura was $850,000, a 4.9% increase over January 2023. At that time, prices were down 3.8% year-over-year, so prices have more than fully rebounded from last year’s correction. The median hasn’t returned to peak levels, but homes have retained most of the appreciation earned during the surge. Consider that in 2019, January’s median was $602,000.
January’s performance coupled with growing demand suggests we may see slightly higher prices this spring.
Bottom Line
Currently, the Ventura market is strong. Prices are up, homeowners are sitting on an unprecedented amount of equity, and mortgages have a low risk of default. If a slowdown in the economy occurs, our market (nationally and locally) will weather it. If the economy ekes out a “soft landing,” we’re poised for steady growth.
All else being equal, this spring I expect a good, competitive market for sellers and more options for buyers. Homes that are prepared, priced, and marketed strategically will do the best, and buyers willing to look past cosmetics will find bargains.

If you have questions about the market or your own home, give me a call at 805-850-5443. I’m eager to get to know you and help make your next move a success!

Last month, Lee and I had the pleasure of hosting an illuminating event aimed at making your homeownership dreams come true. Our commitment to helping individuals like you become proud homeowners is unwavering, and we’re thrilled to announce that this seminar was just the beginning of many more to come, spanning Ventura County and Santa Barbara County.

Our event featured the insights of two industry experts, Leanne Walker from CalHFA and Lynda Bernal from Prosperity Home Mortgage. Their knowledge proved invaluable as they shared with us some eye-opening facts and possibilities in the world of first-time homebuyer programs.

Leanne dove into the details of the CalHFA Dream For All program, which generated tremendous interest earlier this year. However, she didn’t sugarcoat it—getting into this program won’t be a cakewalk. With a lottery system in place, it’s no longer a mere race to secure a property; it’s a guarantee of loan approval for 90 days. This assurance benefits both buyers and sellers alike, as it instills confidence in the transaction.

One key advantage of the Dream For All program is the generous 20% down payment contribution, allowing buyers to stretch their budget further. But, of course, there are some stringent eligibility criteria. First, the buyers must be first-time homebuyers, meaning their parents haven’t owned a property in the last decade. Additionally, there are income and down payment restrictions.

Despite the hurdles, Leanne’s enthusiasm remained unbridled. She encouraged us not to be disheartened by the challenges of the Dream For All program. CalHFA offers a treasure trove of other programs, each designed to make homeownership attainable. Leanne highlighted two standout options: the MyHome Program, providing 3-3.5% for a down payment with a 1% simple interest loan, and the Zip Program, covering 2-3% of closing costs—interest-free!

To qualify for these programs, there are certain guidelines to consider, including credit score requirements and income limits. Interestingly, “first-time homebuyer” isn’t as straightforward as it sounds. There are exceptions. For instance, if you haven’t lived in a property you own for the past 10 years, or if you haven’t owned any property in over 3 years, you might still qualify.

Now, let’s talk about the property itself. The house must meet specific requirements to be eligible for a CalHFA loan. It must be a single-family residence, although mobile homes do qualify. Additionally, properties with ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units) can also be eligible if the tax records classify them as single-family residences. Another essential requirement is a Home Warranty at the time of closing, ensuring peace of mind for first-time homebuyers.

As we move into the new year, we’re excited to share that we have two more seminars planned. On January 24th, 2024, we’ll be in Santa Barbara County (location TBD), and on February 2nd, 2024, we’re coming to Oxnard (location TBD). We’re here to answer all your questions about these programs and guide you through the qualification and homebuying process. Feel free to reach out to us for all your real estate needs. Your dream home is closer than you think!

Stay tuned for more updates and valuable insights as we continue our journey toward making homeownership a reality for everyone.

Trying to decide if it’s a good time to sell your house right now, or if it’s better to wait? Here’s what you should know about today’s housing supply and how it may be the sweet spot you’ve been looking for.

This graph shows the growing supply of homes for sale this year. Notice the big increase we’ve seen since January. But perspective is important. Historically, we still need twice as much inventory as we have today to be in what we’d call a normal or balanced market.

That’s why we’re still in a sellers’ market. Believe it or not, in most areas, there still aren’t enough homes available for sale to meet today’s demand. So, what does that mean for you? There’s buyer demand out there for your house. And at the same time, you should also have more options to choose from when you move.

If you’ve been putting off your plans to sell, now may be the time to jump in. Let’s connect to talk about listing your current house, so you can move into the home you’ve been searching for.

I want to let you know one great reason why you should choose me as your listing agent. I have one of the most creative backgrounds for marketing that you can find in real estate.

Not only was I the publisher of the VC Reporter in Ventura as well as the National Sales Director at California Association of REALTORS, I also started the Hot Properties section in the Los Angeles Times when I was there.

I’ve had incredible success with virtual open houses as well as in person open houses, and finding the creative ways to find buyers for your home

So when you’re comparing agents, make sure you ask them about the creative ways that they’re going to market your property.

I look forward to helping you with your real estate needs!

Does all the news about a potential recession, changing mortgage rates, and rising inflation have you questioning whether or not you still wanna buy a home right now? If so, hear this. Today’s housing market isn’t a challenge, it’s an opportunity. Here are three reasons you should still consider buying a home today.

Reason number one, the intensity of bidding wars is easing. Month-over-month data shows the number of offers on recently sold homes is declining. That’s good news for you, if you’ve been outbid previously or you’re just tired of dealing with the frenzy.

Reason number two, fewer homes are selling for over asking price. While it’s still a competitive market, the percent of homes that sold over list price has declined the past few months.

Reason number three, the supply of homes for sale is growing, and that means you have more options for your home search.

If you’re thinking about buying a home, let’s connect to discuss why today’s market may give you the opportunity you’ve been waiting for. And I as I always say, when’s the best time to buy a home? Today, or 20 years ago!

Should you rent or should you buy a home?

With inflation rising, you may be wondering if you should put your plans to buy on pause. Here’s some information that may help you
make your decision. This graph shows the median asking rent since nineteen eighty-eight. What stands out to me is how steadily it’s
been rising each year. If you’re still renting, ask yourself: how many times has your rent gone up? Probably every time you started or renewed a lease. And as inflation raises prices all around you, that can be a harder pill to swallow these days.

But when you buy a home, you can lock in your monthly payment for the length of your loan. Plus, as you pay that loan off and home prices continue to appreciate, you gain equity, and that will help you build your net worth. Those are two things renting can’t provide.

If consistent payments and growing your long-term wealth are important to you, homeownership should be too – and I can help you get there. I know what steps renters need to take to become homeowners. Let’s connect to get started today.

So if you’re here today, you’re probably considering a move to Ventura and wondering what it’s like to live here. I want to give you an overview of the different types of home location options you can find in Ventura, as I’ve found it to be one of the most diverse in the options for places you can live.

And with our weather at around 73 degrees pretty much all year long, compared to say Los Angeles in August which can be 85 degrees or more, it’s no wonder that we’ve got options that take advantage of the wonderful sea air and views.

Let’s check them out!

First stop, of course, are waterfront and beach front properties. Why live near the ocean if you don’t check these out! Here in Ventura we say homes on the streets leading to the beach are “on the lanes.” Then, there’s the homes that are beach front! Or one or two back… Who wouldn’t love that?

We also have the Ventura Keys, where you can have a home on the water, with a boat dock!

One of the things I love, is that we have a large selection of historic homes… You can find them in Hobson Heights, or in Midtown, or on the Avenue. Really, you can find wonderful older homes throughout Ventura!

Another favorite place for people to live in Ventura is in a view home. Many properties in Ventura allow for 180 degree views of downtown and the ocean. Here’s a view from Skyline. And another from just above Downtown!

And unlike many communities along the coast, Ventura also has many options for ranches, and agriculture which add to its unique offerings. So while you will find traditional homes, townhomes, and condos, and many other offerings you might find in other cities in California, I truly feel Ventura offers residents so many amazing opportunities to pick the type of home locations you’ve always dreamed of, and the incredible weather to boot!

Is the housing market a bubble about to burst? I know there are plenty of headlines out there about whether a potential crash is in the cards, but here’s what you need to know. This isn’t a repeat of 2008.

Pulsenomics recently asked industry experts if the housing market is in a bubble. And the majority, or sixty percent, said no,
it’s not. That’s because today is very different than 2008. Back then we had a historic number of foreclosures due to loose lending standards. That’s a big reason why home values dropped during the crash. This market is a different story. Mortgage lending standards are stricter, and experts aren’t projecting a flood of foreclosures that would lead to a crash.

Have questions about the housing market or what you’re hearing on the news? I can help. Let’s connect so you get the facts and the
answers you’re looking for.

Please feel free to reach out to me with all your real estate needs.

I want to tell you about something that’ll make the decision to sell your house a whole lot easier. It’s called equity. And chances are, you have a lot more of it than you may realize. And that can be a real game changer when you get ready to buy your next home.

Here’s how it works. As you pay down your home loan, and as home prices rise, your equity does too. And here’s the best part. Because home prices have been climbing so much, your equity has likely grown quite a bit. According to CoreLogic, over the past year alone, homeowners have gained record amounts of equity. So, when you sell your house, you can use that equity to help fuel your next move. It may be enough to cover some – if not all – of the down payment on your next home. Your equity can take you places.

The average home’s equity in this country has appreciated by sixty-four thousand dollars over the past twelve months alone. Work with me to find out how much you have, and how you can use it to help power your next move.

Please feel free to reach out to me with all your real estate needs.

I look forward to working with you!

In today’s shifting housing market, overpricing your home is a mistake. Most sellers I work with want to maximize their sales price, minimize the hassles, and sell their house as quickly as possible. But while we’re still in a sellers’ market, things have changed from just a few months ago, and we need to consider how to price your house based on where we are right now.

Here are a few of the benefits of pricing your house right. When you price it at market value, you’ll help boost interest in your home so you can attract more buyers. And when you do, you’ll maximize your sales price.

Plus, when you price your home right, it’ll sell faster. That’s why you don’t wanna overshoot your target price. Price it too high, and it’ll sit on the market or require a price reduction. Price it too low, and it may lead buyers to think something’s wrong. Hitting a bullseye is what I do. And as your agent, I’ll look at all the factors to help you maximize your sales price in today’s shifting market.

Thanks for joining me!

Please feel free to reach out to me with all
your real estate needs.

I look forward to working with you!